Elections 2012: What Happens Next

A Look at Upcoming 2011-2012 Election-Related Events

A Presidential Election in the United States is not simply an event on one day; it is a long process with many important steps, and that process for the 2012 Presidential Election is already well underway.

In order to have the maximum impact upon this process, we need to be well-informed and attentive to each of the key moments as they unfold, and be ready to inform and involve as many others as possible.

Below is a partial calendar of upcoming events. Paying attention to these various events will assist you and others to know the candidates better and to take part in the national discussion about them.

The United States Catholic Bishops have stated,

“We get the public officials we deserve. Their virtue -- or lack thereof -- is a judgment not only on them, but on us. Because of this, we urge our fellow citizens to see beyond party politics, to analyze campaign rhetoric critically, and to choose their political leaders according to principle, not party affiliation or mere self-interest” (1998, “Living the Gospel of Life,” n. 34).

The only way we can carry out this wise guidance with the maximum impact is to pay attention to each step of the process, starting right now.

[NOTE: There are more Republican Presidential events listed, such as debates and straw polls, by virtue of the fact that the Republican nomination is contested and the Democrat nomination is not.]

[NOTE: 1,144 delegates will be needed to win the Republican nomination for President. Since President Obama is not expected to be seriously challenged for the Democrat nomination, delegate numbers for Democrat primaries and caucuses are omitted.]

February 2012

February 9-29: Wyoming Republican Presidential Straw Poll

Wyoming Republicans will hold precinct caucuses during this 21-day period in which a non-binding Presidential poll will be conducted. The results of the poll/election will have no bearing on the selection of delegates to the Republican National Convention, who will be chosen at County caucuses on March 6.

February 22: Republican Presidential Debate – Arizona

Originally scheduled for December 1, 2011, this debate will now occur six days before the Arizona primary. It will be co-hosted by the Arizona Republican Party and CNN at the Mesa Arts Center (the “MAC”) and will be televised by CNN at 6:00 p.m. local Mountain time, 8:00 p.m. Eastern, and 5:00 p.m. Pacific Standard Time.

February 25: Northern Mariana Islands Republican Presidential Convention

9 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Republicans in this Pacific island commonwealth of the United States will gather at their own convention this day to select delegates to the Republican National Convention.

February 26: Maine Democrat Presidential Caucus

The caucuses are open to Democrats and anyone who registers as a Democrat at a caucus meeting. Participants will elect delegates to the County Conventions, who will choose the delegates to the State Convention, who will ultimately select the National Convention delegates.

February 28: Arizona Presidential Primary

29 Delegates – Winner takes all

Arizona Republicans and Democrats will go to the polls to vote in Presidential primaries, although the Democrat primary will be non-binding on delegate selection. The primaries will be closed – voters must be registered in a political party in order to vote in that party’s primary.

Polls will be open from 6:00 am Mountain time to 7:00 pm

Normally, Arizona would send 58 delegates to the Republican National Convention, but because the state primary was moved to a date earlier than national party rules permitted, the state is penalized by losing half of its delegates.

In 2008, native son John McCain won the Arizona primary with 47% of the vote; Mitt Romney took 35%; Mike Huckabee 9%; and Ron Paul 4%.

February 28: Michigan Presidential Primary

30 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Michigan Republicans and Democrats will vote for President in their respective primaries today, but the Democrat primary will be non-binding on delegate selection. Technically, the primaries will be closed – only Republicans may vote in the Republican primary; only Democrats may vote in the Democrat primary. It should be noted, however, that registered voters may declare themselves to be Republicans at the polling place, vote in the GOP primary, and then be listed as Republicans on the voter rolls.

Polls will be open from 7:00 am Eastern and Central to 8:00 pm Eastern and Central. Because most of the state is in the Eastern time zone, television networks will likely make their vote projections after 8:00 pm EST.

Delegates to the Republican National Convention will be awarded proportionally based on the results of the primary voting. A candidate must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote, however, to receive any delegates. Normally, Michigan would have sent 59 delegates to the national convention, but its delegation was reduced 50% when it moved its primary to a date earlier than the national party approved.

In 2008, Mitt Romney, whose father was governor of Michigan, won the primary with 39% of the vote; John McCain took 30%; Mike Huckabee 16%; and Ron Paul 6%.

March 2012

NOTE: The Republican Presidential Debates previously scheduled for March 1 in Georgia and March 5 in California have been cancelled.

March 3: Washington Republican Caucus

43 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Washington Republicans will gather this Saturday morning at 10:00 am Pacific time for Precinct Caucuses where they will elect delegates to County Caucuses, which are held from mid-March into April. Delegates to the County Caucuses will choose delegates to the May 31 State Convention, who will then choose the state’s delegates to the Republican National Convention.

While the caucuses are technically closed, with only Republicans allowed to participate, Washington does not register voters by party. To take part in the caucuses, a voter simply shows up and signs a document declaring that he’s a Republican.

Also on the Precinct Caucus agenda will be a non-binding Presidential straw poll. This unofficial election will be what the press covers this day, but it will have no direct bearing on the state’s allocation of convention delegates to the various candidates. Because this straw poll is non-binding, Washington did not suffer a delegate-reduction penalty for holding its caucuses earlier than the Republican National Committee wanted.

In the February 9, 2008 Washington Republican caucus straw poll, John McCain took 50% of the vote, Mike Huckabee 24%, Mitt Romney 16% and Ron Paul 8%.

March 6: SUPER TUESDAY

Alaska Republican District Conventions

27 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Alaska’s Republicans gather at local District Conventions to vote for their choice for President. The results of this vote will be used to apportion 24 of the state’s 27 delegates to the various candidates. The state’s GOP National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the state party will attend the Republican National Convention as unpledged delegates.

Only Republicans may participate in the District Conventions, but non-Republicans may re-register on the day of the convention.

In the 2008 District Conventions, Mitt Romney took 44% of the vote, Mike Huckabee 22%, Ron Paul 17%, and John McCain 15%.

American Samoa Democrat Caucus

Voters of any or no political party will gather to choose six of American Samoa’s 12 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. The remaining six delegates will consist of party leaders and officials of the territory.

Colorado Democrat Caucus

Registered Democrats will gather at local precinct caucuses to conduct a Presidential straw poll and elect delegates to County Conventions. Delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be selected at the Congressional District and State Conventions.

Georgia Primary

76 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Georgia does not register voters by political party, so any voter may participate in either the Republican or Democrat primary. When a registered voter votes in a party’s primary, however, his participation in that primary becomes public record.

In the Republican primary, three delegates to the Republican National Convention are elected from each of the state’s 14 Congressional Districts. If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in a Congressional District, he receives all three of that District’s delegates. If no candidate in a Congressional District receives a majority, the candidate receiving the most votes gets two delegates and the second place candidate receives one. There are 31 “at-large” delegates allotted proportionally to candidates based on the statewide vote, except that a candidate must receive at least 20% of the statewide vote to receive any of these delegates. Three delegates are automatically awarded to the candidate who receives the most primary votes statewide.

Polls will be open from 7:00 am Eastern to 7:00 pm.

In the 2008 Georgia Republican primary, Mike Huckabee won 34% of the vote; John McCain 32%; Mitt Romney 30%; and Ron Paul 3%.

Idaho Republican Caucus

32 Delegates – Awarded proportionally or winner-take-all, depending on the outcome

Only registered Republicans may participate in Idaho’s GOP caucuses, but voters may register as Republicans when they enter the caucus site.

Caucuses will be held in all of Idaho’s counties. Each caucus will have successive rounds of voting with the candidate receiving the fewest votes in each round eliminated. Voting will continue until either one candidate receives 60% of the vote or only two candidates remain on the ballot.

Delegates will be awarded proportionally based on the final voting in each caucus; however, if one candidate receives more than 50% of the delegates statewide, he will be awarded all of Idaho’s 32 delegates.

In 2008, Idaho Republicans held a primary on May 27, which was won by John McCain with 70% of the vote; Ron Paul took 24% and “uncommitted” 6%.

Massachusetts Primary

41 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Registered Republicans must vote in the Republican primary and registered Democrats must vote in the Democrat primary, but independents may vote in either contest. Polls are open from 7:00 am Eastern to 8:00 pm.

Delegates to the Republican convention are awarded to each candidate based on his percentage of the statewide vote; candidates who receive less than 15% of the statewide vote, however, receive no delegates.

In 2008, Mitt Romney won the Massachusetts primary with 51% of the vote; John McCain took 41%; Mike Huckabee 4%; and Ron Paul 3%.

Minnesota Democrat Caucus

Democrats and independents who state that they agree with Minnesota’s Democrat Farm Labor Party’s principles participate in Organizing Unit Conventions held between March 6 and April 8. These Organizing Unit Conventions are considered the first official step in choosing delegates to the Democratic National Convention, who are selected at Congressional District Conventions held from April 9 to June 1.

North Dakota Republican Caucus

28 Delegates – Awarded proportionally or winner-take-all, depending on the outcome

North Dakota does not register voters. Participation in the Republican caucuses is limited to those who are physically present and declare that they voted Republican in the last general election or plan to vote Republican in the next election. Voters cast secret ballots at the caucus sites, with the results reported to the state party headquarters no later than 9:00 pm Central time.

Candidates win delegates according to the percentage of caucus votes they receive statewide. If a candidate wins two-thirds of the vote, he is awarded all 28 delegates.

In 2008, the results of the North Dakota caucus were: Mitt Romney 36% of the vote; John McCain 23%; Ron Paul 21%; and Mike Huckabee 20%.

Ohio Primary

66 Delegates – Awarded proportionally or winner-take-all, depending on the outcome

In addition to a Presidential primary, Ohio will be the first state to hold a primary for U.S. Senate and Congressional candidates. Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown is running unopposed for re-election. Republican Senate candidates include State Treasurer Josh Mandel, Rusty Bliss, Jr., Donna Glisman, Eric Gregory, and Michael Price.

Ohio’s primary is closed, meaning that only Republicans may vote in the Republican primary and Democrats may vote in the Democrat primary; however, if a registered voter wishes to switch political parties, he may do so at the polling place by filling out a form.

Polls will be open from 6:30 am Eastern to 7:30 pm.

Each of Ohio’s 16 Congressional districts will send three delegates to the Republican National Convention. The candidate receiving the most votes in a Congressional district wins its three delegates. Additionally, 15 at-large delegates will be awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote, except that if one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, he will win all 15 delegates. To receive any at-large delegates, a candidate must receive at least 20% of the statewide vote. Three state party officials will attend the National Convention as unpledged delegates.

In 2008, John McCain won Ohio’s primary with 60% of the vote; Mike Huckabee took 31%; and Ron Paul 5%.

Oklahoma Primary

43 Delegates – Awarded proportionally or winner-take-all, depending on the outcome

Oklahoma’s primary is closed; only registered Republicans may vote in the GOP primary; only registered Democrats in the Democrat primary.

Polls will be open from 7:00 am Central to 7:00 pm.

Each of Oklahoma’s five Congressional districts will send three delegates to the National Convention. If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in a Congressional district or if only one candidate receives more than 15%, he wins all three of the district’s delegates. If no candidate receives 50% of the vote, but at least two candidates receive more than 15%, the candidate with the most votes receives two delegates and the runner-up one. If no candidate receives at least 15% of the vote in a Congressional district, the top three vote getters each win one delegate.

Twenty-five at-large delegates will be awarded based on the statewide vote. If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, he wins all 25 delegates. If no candidate receives 50% of the vote, delegates are awarded proportionally to every candidate with more than 15% of the vote. Three state party officials will attend the National Convention as unpledged delegates.

In Oklahoma’s 2008 Presidential primary, John McCain won 37% of the vote; Mike Huckabee 33%; Mitt Romney 25%; and Ron Paul 3%.

Tennessee Primary

58 Delegates – Awarded proportionally or winner-take-all, depending on the outcome

Tennessee does not register voters by party; any voter may vote in either party’s primary.

Polls are open from 8:00 am Eastern to 8:00 pm.

Each of Tennessee’s nine Congressional districts will send three delegates to the Republican National Convention. A candidate will receive all three of a district’s delegates if he receives at least two-thirds of its votes or if he receives at least 50% of its votes and no other candidate wins 20%. If no candidate receives 50% of the vote and at least two receive 20%, the highest vote getter wins two delegates and the runner-up one. If only one or no candidate receives at least 20% of the vote, the top three finishing candidates each receive.

Fourteen at-large delegates will be awarded in the primary, as well. If any candidate receives more than two-thirds of the statewide vote, he receives all 14 delegates; otherwise the 14 delegates are divided proportionally among candidates who receive at least 20% of the vote.

Finally, 14 delegates are elected by the party’s State Executive Committee to attend the National Convention.

In 2008, Mike Huckabee won the Tennessee primary with 34% of the vote; John McCain took 32%; Mitt Romney 24%; and Ron Paul 6%.

Vermont Primary

17 Delegates – Awarded proportionally or winner-take-all, depending on the outcome.

Vermont does not register voters by party. Any voter may vote in either the Democrat or Republican primary.

Polls may open as early as 5:00 am Eastern and close at 7:00 pm.

The candidate who receives the most votes in the primary automatically wins three delegates. If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, he receives an additional 11 delegates. If no candidate wins at least 50% of the vote, the 11 delegates are divided proportionally among those who receive at least 20% of the vote. Three Republican Party officials will attend the National Convention as unpledged delegates.

In the 2008 Vermont primary, John McCain won 72% of the vote; Mike Huckabee 14%; and Ron Paul 7%.

Virginia Primary

49 Delegates – Awarded proportionally or winner-take-all, depending on the outcome.

Virginia does not register voters by party. Anyone may vote in either the Republican or Democrat primary.

Because only two Republican Presidential candidates’ campaigns submitted enough signatures to qualify for the Virginia ballot, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney will be the only competitors for the state’s delegates.

Each of Virginia’s 11 Congressional districts will send three delegates to the Republican National Convention. The candidate winning the most votes in a Congressional district will win its three delegates. The candidate receiving 50% or more of the statewide vote will receive an additional 13 at-large delegates.

In 2008, John McCain took 50% of the Virginia primary vote; Mike Huckabee 41%; and Ron Paul 4%.

March 6-10: Wyoming Republican County Conventions

29 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Wyoming Republicans meet over this five-day period in county conventions across the state to elect 12 of the state’s 29 National Convention delegates. Fourteen additional delegates will be chosen at the Wyoming State Republican Convention in Cheyenne on April 12-14. Three delegates, the state National Committeeman, the state National Committeewoman, and the Chairman of the Wyoming Republican Party, will attend the National Convention as unpledged delegates.

In 2008, Mitt Romney won 8 Wyoming delegates, Fred Thompson 3, and Duncan Hunter 1.

March 6-April 8: Minnesota Democrat Organizing Units

This is the second level of organizing for the Minnesota Democratic Farm Labor party, but the first in terms of actual delegate selection. Participants in these meetings will choose 91 of Minnesota’s 107 delegates to the Democrat National Convention.

March 7: Hawaii Democrat Caucus

Hawaii’s Democrats will gather at precinct caucuses to begin the delegate selection process to their party’s National Convention. A Presidential preference poll will also be held at the caucuses.

March 10: Guam Republican Caucus

9 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Guam’s Republicans will convene at a caucus/convention to choose six of the island territory’s nine delegates to the Republican National Convention. Three delegates, the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Guam Republican Party will automatically attend the Convention as unpledged delegates.

In 2008, John McCain won all six delegates chosen at the territorial caucus.

March 10: Kansas Republican Caucus

40 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Registered Republicans will meet in caucuses across the state this Saturday morning at 10:00 am Central time to elect all 40 of Kansas’s delegates to the National Convention.

In each of the state’s four Congressional districts, the candidate receiving the most votes in that district wins three delegates. An additional 25 delegates will be elected based on the statewide vote and will be awarded proportionally, except that a candidate must win at least 20% of the statewide vote to be eligible to receive any of these 25 delegates. Three delegates, the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and the chair of the Kansas Republican Party, will automatically attend the convention, but will be pledged to the candidate who takes the most statewide votes.

In 2008, Mike Huckabee took 60% of the Kansas caucus vote and won all of the state’s delegates. John McCain won 24%; Ron Paul 11%; and Mitt Romney 3%.

March 10: Northern Mariana Islands Republican Caucus

9 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Republicans in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands will hold a caucus/convention today to select six of their nine delegates to the Republican National Convention. The National Mariana Islands’ Republican National Committeeman, National Committeewomen, and the chairman of the Republican Party will attend the National Convention as unpledged delegates.

In 2008, John McCain took over 91% of the caucus votes and all nine delegates from the Northern Mariana Islands

March 10: Virgin Islands Republican Party Caucus

9 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Registered Republicans in the U.S. Virgin Islands will meet on St. Thomas, St. Croix, and St. John between noon and 6:00 pm Eastern time to elect six of the territory’s nine National Convention delegates.

Delegates appear on the ballot as pledged to one of the Presidential candidates; voters may vote for up to six delegates. The six delegates receiving the most votes will attend the National Convention. Three delegates, the National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Virgin Islands Republican Party will automatically attend the convention as unpledged delegates.

In 2008, “uncommitted” delegates won 47% of the vote and were the top six vote getters. John McCain’s delegates took 31.5% of the vote; Mitt Romney’s 18.5%; and Ron Paul’s 3%.

March 13: Alabama Primary

50 Delegates – Awarded proportionally or winner-take-all, depending on the outcome

Republicans and Democrats hold “open” primaries this day, meaning that any voter may vote in the party primary of his choosing. Polls will open from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm Central time.

In the Republican primary, 47 of Alabama’s 50 GOP National Convention delegates will be elected. Twenty-one delegates will be elected through Congressional district voting; that is, each of the state’s seven Congressional districts will elect three delegates. If a candidate receives at least 50% of the vote in a Congressional district or he is the only one to receive at least 20% of the vote, he wins all three of the district’s delegates to the convention. If no candidate receives 50% of the vote and more than one candidate receives over 20% of the vote, the candidate with the most votes gets two delegates from the Congressional district and the candidate in second place receives the third.

Alabama’s 26 at-large Republican delegates are chosen in a similar manner. If a candidate receives at least 50% of the vote statewide or is the only one to win at least 20%, he receives all 26 at-large delegates. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the 26 at-large delegates will be awarded proportionally to those candidates with more than 20% of the statewide vote.

The final three delegates, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Alabama Republican Party will attend the convention unpledged to any candidate.

In 2008, Mike Huckabee won 41% of the vote, John McCain 37%, Mitt Romney 18%, and Ron Paul 3%.

March 13 – American Samoa Republican Caucus

9 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Any voter may participate in American Samoa’s Republican Caucus to select six of the territory’s nine GOP National Convention delegates. The National Committeeman, National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the American Samoa Republican Party will attend the convention as unpledged delegates.

In 2008, John McCain won all six of the delegates chosen at the caucus/convention.

March 13 – Hawaii Republican Caucus

20 Delegates – Awarded proportionally

Hawaiians will gather at caucuses between 6:00 pm and 8:00 pm local time to elect 17 of the state’s 20 delegates to the Republican National Convention. While the primary is technically open only to Republicans, anyone may declare himself to be a Republican voter at a caucus site.

Three convention delegates will be elected from each of Hawaii’s two Congressional districts, while another 11 will be chosen based on the statewide vote. In both the Congressional district and statewide races, delegates will be awarded to candidates based on the candidate’s percentage of the vote. The National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Hawaii Republican Party will serve as uncommitted delegates.

In 2008, all 20 of Hawaii’s delegates attended the Republican National Convention as uncommitted to any candidate.

March 13 – Mississippi Primary

40 Delegates – Awarded proportionally or winner-take-all, depending on the outcome

Mississippi does not register voters by political party, so any voter may participate in the primary of his choice. The voter must agree, however, to support the nominee of the party in order to participate in that party’s primary. Polls will be open from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm Central time.

Each of Mississippi’s four Congressional districts will send three delegates to the National Republican Convention. The candidate receiving the most votes in each district will receive those three delegates. Twenty-five at-large delegates will be allocated based on the statewide vote. If one candidate receives at least 50% of the vote, he wins all 25 at-large delegates. If no candidate receives at least 50% of the statewide votes cast, the 25 at-large delegates will be awarded proportionally to those candidates receiving at least 15% of the vote.

In 2008, John McCain took 79% of the vote, Mike Huckabee 13%, and Ron Paul 4%. Mitt Romney had dropped out of the race by the time of the Mississippi primary.

March 13 – Utah Democrat Caucus

Utah’s delegate selection process for the Democratic National Convention begins with these precinct level caucuses. The process will continue at subsequent County and State Conventions.

March 19: Republican Presidential Debate – Oregon

Oregon Public Broadcasting, the Public Broadcasting System, National Public Radio, the Washington Times, and the Oregon Republican Party will co-host this debate to be held at the Portland studio of Oregon Public Broadcasting. NPR and PBS will broadcast the event live through member stations across the country at 9:00 pm Eastern/6:00 pm Pacific.



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