Notes, Quotes From 2004 Campaign in Minn.

Thu Sep 23, 2:53 PM ET

By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

The last time a Republican presidential candidate won Minnesota was in 1972, with the nation at war in Vietnam and incumbent Richard Nixon seeking a second term. President Bush hopes to end the 32-year drought by increasing turnout among Republicans in the farther suburbs and rural areas of Minnesota.

The GOP incumbent and the Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites), will fight it out in Anoka County, a blue-collar Twin Cities suburb where Al Gore defeated Bush by just 1,248 votes out of 145,000 cast in 2004.

The Iraq war is a major concern in the state. Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a Bush ally, angered the White House last spring when he said Iraq was a "mess" that had voters rattled. He toes the party line now, telling National Guard troops preparing to ship out to Iraq this month that they will be a part of history.

"Overcoming evil is one thing," he said. "Replacing it with freedom and peace is another."

The unemployment rate, 4.8 percent, is below the national average, but 19,100 jobs have been lost since Bush took office.

Polls show the race close in Minnesota. A Mason-Dixon survey suggested that jobs and the economy are the top concern, with voters evenly divided on who would could best handle the issue. Bush is favored on Iraq and terrorism, which are also top issues.

Kerry has visited Minnesota six times, knowing he can't afford to lose a state that Gore claimed by just 2 percentage points. Bush has visited 10 times.

The state is part of Bush's strategy to press Kerry in three Mississippi River states narrowly claimed by Gore — Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

BY THE NUMBERS:

10 — Number of electoral votes.

69.4 — Percent turnout in 2000, highest in the country.

11,842 — Number of lakes in the "Land of 10,000 Lakes."

2 — Vice presidents from Minnesota. Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale both later ran for president and lost.

QUOTABLE:

_ "The Republican Party is not the party I knew.," — Former Republican Gov. Elmer Andersen, 95, who intends to vote for Kerry. "The thought of a pre-emptive strike is abhorrent to me."

_ "People talk about jobs and poverty and health care, but it won't do any good if al-Qaida's running the country." — James Miller, 68, of Rochester, a Bush supporter.

_ "They say what they want right now, and then they change their minds." — Mary Jax, 50, a food worker from Byron, who is considering sitting out the election. "I pay attention, but it's hard to decide."

NOTABLE:

The last time a Republican took Minnesota was 1972, and the 32-year drought — seven elections — is the longest for Republicans anywhere in the country.

WHAT TO WATCH ON ELECTION NIGHT:

Anoka County is THE swing county in this swing state. The fourth largest of seven counties in the critical Twin Cities metro area, its voters were instrumental in putting Jesse Ventura in the governor's chair in 1998. Anoka was once a lunch-bucket, blue-collar Democratic stronghold, and if it votes Bush it could help put the state in his 'W' column. Kerry should dominate Minneapolis, St. Paul and "canoe country" counties up north on the Iron Range.

IN MINNESOTA FOUR YEARS AGO:

Gore's 58,600-vote victory over Bush — out of more than 2.4 million ballots cast — was a slimmer margin than Democrats had come to expect. Exit polls showed Gore lost about a fourth of liberal voters while Bush held firm among conservatives. Ralph Nader (news - web sites) posted one of his stronger showings with roughly 127,000 votes.

----Associated Press writers Brian Bakst in St. Paul and Dave Pyle and Elizabeth Dunbar in Minneapolis contributed to this report.