Despite Edwards, N.C. Leans Republican

Mon Sep 13, 1:42 PM ET

By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

North Carolina has lost 160,000 manufacturing jobs under President Bush and is home to Sen. John Kerry running mate, Sen. John Edwards. A Democratic state? Hardly.

The Kerry-Edwards ticket has tried to put North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes into play with several visits and an aggressive pre-fall advertising campaign.

"Every president since the Great Depression has created jobs, except George Bush, who has a policy of sending jobs overseas," Kerry told supporters in Greensboro this month. "Do you want four more years of sending jobs overseas? Because that's their policy."

It's their politics Kerry must worry about. A GOP presidential nominee hasn't lost North Carolina since 1976. Four years ago, Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore 54 percent to 43 percent by sweeping Republican voters and peeling off conservative and moderate Democrats — the so-called "Jessecrats" named after former Sen. Jesse Helms.

After the Democrats spent tens of thousands of dollars in North Carolina, Kerry's fall advertising budget makes clear that the state, while still competitive, is a second-tier target. North Carolina is part of the Democrats' $50 million advertising budget for the fall, but no commercials are scheduled for the state until October, if ever.

While campaign advisers say they have not given up on the state, they're looking to states like Florida and Ohio to put Kerry over the top. North Carolina probably won't come into play unless the Democrat is romping to a comfortable win.

BY THE NUMBERS:

15 — number of electoral votes, up from 14 in 2000 due to population growth.

21 — percent of population that is black

4,800 — number of jobs lost in the July 2003 shutdown of Kannapolis-based textile maker Pillowtex, the largest mass layoff in state history.

560 — miles from Manteo in the east to Murphy in the west. That makes North Carolina the widest state east of the Mississippi River.

QUOTABLE:

"I know it's going to be a close race in North Carolina. And if we have people who look to the issues instead of all the bull on the TV, then it will be all right. Instead of talking about something 30 years ago, let's talk about today." — Tracy DeBusk of Kernersville, a dockworker for Roadway Express who supports Kerry-Edwards.

"I don't think John Kerry has found a tax cut he has supported. I work hard for my money and I want to keep as much of it as I can." — Mike Stone of Greensboro, who held a Bush-Cheney placard in the rain as Kerry left town last week after a campaign stop.

"It's obvious that things aren't going well, so why wouldn't you want a change?" — Kay Spangle of High Point. Her family-owned furniture upholstery business closed recently, putting a dozen people out of work.

NOTABLE:

Edwards is the first North Carolinian on a national ticket in 140 years. Raleigh native Andrew Johnson, who made his political career in Tennessee, was Abraham Lincoln's running mate in 1864 and became president after Lincoln's assassination.

Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat to carry the state, in 1976.

WHAT TO WATCH ON ELECTION NIGHT:

Bush should run strongest in western North Carolina and in the suburban counties of the Piedmont. One sign of trouble could be if he trails Kerry significantly in the cities of Winston-Salem, Greensboro and Charlotte, where he ran even with Gore four years ago.

Two Democrats are expected to run strongly statewide — incumbent Gov. Mike Easley and Senate candidate Erskine Bowles, who was chief of staff for President Clinton. Both have mostly absented themselves when Kerry and Edwards have appeared in the state, but they could increase Democratic turnout.

IN NORTH CAROLINA FOUR YEARS AGO:

Bush rolled to an easy win over Al Gore with largely the same formula that was electoral magic for former Sen. Jesse Helms for decades, sweeping Republican voters and gaining support among some conservative and moderate Democrats as well. Bush won by wide margins among swing voters, independents and Catholics and among voters who said they voted for H. Ross Perot in 1996.

AP writers Tim Whitmire and Gary D. Robertson contributed to this report.